An Innovation System Perspective on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Water Management in India

Government policies play a critical role in influencing market conditions, institutions and overall agricultural productivity. The thesis therefore looks into the history of agriculture development in India. Taking a political economy perspective, the historical account looks at significant institutional and technological innovations carried out in pre- independent and post independent India. It further focuses on the Green Revolution in Asia, as forty years after; the agricultural community still faces the task of addressing recurrent issue of food security amidst emerging challenges, such as climate change. It examines the Green Revolution that took place in India during the late 1960s and 70s in a historical perspective, identifying two factors of institutional change and political leadership. Climate change in agriculture development has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. However, there is little knowledge on the farmers’ perception to climate change and to the extent they coincide with actual climatic data. Using a qualitative approach,it looks into the perceptions of the farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. While exploring the adaptation strategies, the chapter looks into the dynamics of who can afford a particular technology and who cannot and what leads to a particular adaptation decision thus determining the adaptive capacity in water management. The final section looks into the devolution of authority for natural resource management to local user groups through the Water Users’ Associations as an important approach to overcome the long-standing challenges of centralized state bureaucracies in India. It addresses the knowledge gap of why some local user groups are able to overcome governance challenges such as elite capture, while others-that work under the design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom. It draws conclusions on how local leadership, can be promoted to facilitate participatory irrigation management.

Analyzing the dependence structure of microarray data: a copula–based approach

The main aim of this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of clustering dependent data by means of copula functions with particular emphasis on microarray data. Copula functions are a popular multivariate modeling tool in each field where the multivariate dependence is of great interest and their use in clustering has not been still investigated. The first part of this work contains the review of the literature of clustering methods, copula functions and microarray experiments. The attention focuses on the K–means (Hartigan, 1975; Hartigan and Wong, 1979), the hierarchical (Everitt, 1974) and the model–based (Fraley and Raftery, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007) clustering techniques because their performance is compared. Then, the probabilistic interpretation of the Sklar’s theorem (Sklar’s, 1959), the estimation methods for copulas like the Inference for Margins (Joe and Xu, 1996) and the Archimedean and Elliptical copula families are presented. In the end, applications of clustering methods and copulas to the genetic and microarray experiments are highlighted. The second part contains the original contribution proposed. A simulation study is performed in order to evaluate the performance of the K–means and the hierarchical bottom–up clustering methods in identifying clusters according to the dependence structure of the data generating process. Different simulations are performed by varying different conditions (e.g., the kind of margins (distinct, overlapping and nested) and the value of the dependence parameter ) and the results are evaluated by means of different measures of performance. In light of the simulation results and of the limits of the two investigated clustering methods, a new clustering algorithm based on copula functions (‘CoClust’ in brief) is proposed. The basic idea, the iterative procedure of the CoClust and the description of the written R functions with their output are given. The CoClust algorithm is tested on simulated data (by varying the number of clusters, the copula models, the dependence parameter value and the degree of overlap of margins) and is compared with the performance of model–based clustering by using different measures of performance, like the percentage of well–identified number of clusters and the not rejection percentage of H0 on . It is shown that the CoClust algorithm allows to overcome all observed limits of the other investigated clustering techniques and is able to identify clusters according to the dependence structure of the data independently of the degree of overlap of margins and the strength of the dependence. The CoClust uses a criterion based on the maximized log–likelihood function of the copula and can virtually account for any possible dependence relationship between observations. Many peculiar characteristics are shown for the CoClust, e.g. its capability of identifying the true number of clusters and the fact that it does not require a starting classification. Finally, the CoClust algorithm is applied to the real microarray data of Hedenfalk et al. (2001) both to the gene expressions observed in three different cancer samples and to the columns (tumor samples) of the whole data matrix.

A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

TCAD approaches to multidimensional simulation of advanced semiconductor devices

Technology scaling increasingly emphasizes complexity and non-ideality of the electrical behavior of semiconductor devices and boosts interest on alternatives to the conventional planar MOSFET architecture. TCAD simulation tools are fundamental to the analysis and development of new technology generations. However, the increasing device complexity is reflected in an augmented dimensionality of the problems to be solved. The trade-off between accuracy and computational cost of the simulation is especially influenced by domain discretization: mesh generation is therefore one of the most critical steps and automatic approaches are sought. Moreover, the problem size is further increased by process variations, calling for a statistical representation of the single device through an ensemble of microscopically different instances. The aim of this thesis is to present multi-disciplinary approaches to handle this increasing problem dimensionality in a numerical simulation perspective. The topic of mesh generation is tackled by presenting a new Wavelet-based Adaptive Method (WAM) for the automatic refinement of 2D and 3D domain discretizations. Multiresolution techniques and efficient signal processing algorithms are exploited to increase grid resolution in the domain regions where relevant physical phenomena take place. Moreover, the grid is dynamically adapted to follow solution changes produced by bias variations and quality criteria are imposed on the produced meshes. The further dimensionality increase due to variability in extremely scaled devices is considered with reference to two increasingly critical phenomena, namely line-edge roughness (LER) and random dopant fluctuations (RD). The impact of such phenomena on FinFET devices, which represent a promising alternative to planar CMOS technology, is estimated through 2D and 3D TCAD simulations and statistical tools, taking into account matching performance of single devices as well as basic circuit blocks such as SRAMs. Several process options are compared, including resist- and spacer-defined fin patterning as well as different doping profile definitions. Combining statistical simulations with experimental data, potentialities and shortcomings of the FinFET architecture are analyzed and useful design guidelines are provided, which boost feasibility of this technology for mainstream applications in sub-45 nm generation integrated circuits.

Computer simulation of ordering and dynamics in liquid crystals in the bulk and close to the surface

The aim of this PhD thesis is to investigate the orientational and dynamical properties of liquid crystalline systems, at molecular level and using atomistic computer simulations, to reach a better understanding of material behavior from a microscopic point view. In perspective this should allow to clarify the relation between the micro and macroscopic properties with the objective of predicting or confirming experimental results on these systems. In this context, we developed four different lines of work in the thesis. The first one concerns the orientational order and alignment mechanism of rigid solutes of small dimensions dissolved in a nematic phase formed by the 4-pentyl,4 cyanobiphenyl (5CB) nematic liquid crystal. The orientational distribution of solutes have been obtained with Molecular Dynamics Simulation (MD) and have been compared with experimental data reported in literature. we have also verified the agreement between order parameters and dipolar coupling values measured in NMR experiments. The MD determined effective orientational potentials have been compared with the predictions of Maier­Saupe and Surface tensor models. The second line concerns the development of a correct parametrization able to reproduce the phase transition properties of a prototype of the oligothiophene semiconductor family: sexithiophene (T6). T6 forms two crystalline polymorphs largely studied, and possesses liquid crystalline phases still not well characterized, From simulations we detected a phase transition from crystal to liquid crystal at about 580 K, in agreement with available experiments, and in particular we found two LC phases, smectic and nematic. The crystal­smectic transition is associated to a relevant density variation and to strong conformational changes of T6, namely the molecules in the liquid crystal phase easily assume a bent shape, deviating from the planar structure typical of the crystal. The third line explores a new approach for calculating the viscosity in a nematic through a virtual exper- iment resembling the classical falling sphere experiment. The falling sphere is replaced by an hydrogenated silicon nanoparticle of spherical shape suspended in 5CB, and gravity effects are replaced by a constant force applied to the nanoparticle in a selected direction. Once the nanoparticle reaches a constant velocity, the viscosity of the medium can be evaluated using Stokes' law. With this method we successfully reproduced experimental viscosities and viscosity anisotropy for the solvent 5CB. The last line deals with the study of order induction on nematic molecules by an hydrogenated silicon surface. Gaining predicting power for the anchoring behavior of liquid crystals at surfaces will be a very desirable capability, as many properties related to devices depend on molecular organization close to surfaces. Here we studied, by means of atomistic MD simulations, the flat interface between an hydrogenated (001) silicon surface in contact with a sample of 5CB molecules. We found a planar anchoring of the first layers of 5CB where surface interactions are dominating with respect to the mesogen intermolecular interactions. We also analyzed the interface 5CB­vacuum, finding a homeotropic orientation of the nematic at this interface.

Second law analysis and simulation techniques for the energy optimization of buildings

The research activity described in this thesis is focused mainly on the study of finite-element techniques applied to thermo-fluid dynamic problems of plant components and on the study of dynamic simulation techniques applied to integrated building design in order to enhance the energy performance of the building. The first part of this doctorate thesis is a broad dissertation on second law analysis of thermodynamic processes with the purpose of including the issue of the energy efficiency of buildings within a wider cultural context which is usually not considered by professionals in the energy sector. In particular, the first chapter includes, a rigorous scheme for the deduction of the expressions for molar exergy and molar flow exergy of pure chemical fuels. The study shows that molar exergy and molar flow exergy coincide when the temperature and pressure of the fuel are equal to those of the environment in which the combustion reaction takes place. A simple method to determine the Gibbs free energy for non-standard values of the temperature and pressure of the environment is then clarified. For hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and several hydrocarbons, the dependence of the molar exergy on the temperature and relative humidity of the environment is reported, together with an evaluation of molar exergy and molar flow exergy when the temperature and pressure of the fuel are different from those of the environment. As an application of second law analysis, a comparison of the thermodynamic efficiency of a condensing boiler and of a heat pump is also reported. The second chapter presents a study of borehole heat exchangers, that is, a polyethylene piping network buried in the soil which allows a ground-coupled heat pump to exchange heat with the ground. After a brief overview of low-enthalpy geothermal plants, an apparatus designed and assembled by the author to carry out thermal response tests is presented. Data obtained by means of in situ thermal response tests are reported and evaluated by means of a finite-element simulation method, implemented through the software package COMSOL Multyphysics. The simulation method allows the determination of the precise value of the effective thermal properties of the ground and of the grout, which are essential for the design of borehole heat exchangers. In addition to the study of a single plant component, namely the borehole heat exchanger, in the third chapter is presented a thorough process for the plant design of a zero carbon building complex. The plant is composed of: 1) a ground-coupled heat pump system for space heating and cooling, with electricity supplied by photovoltaic solar collectors; 2) air dehumidifiers; 3) thermal solar collectors to match 70% of domestic hot water energy use, and a wood pellet boiler for the remaining domestic hot water energy use and for exceptional winter peaks. This chapter includes the design methodology adopted: 1) dynamic simulation of the building complex with the software package TRNSYS for evaluating the energy requirements of the building complex; 2) ground-coupled heat pumps modelled by means of TRNSYS; and 3) evaluation of the total length of the borehole heat exchanger by an iterative method developed by the author. An economic feasibility and an exergy analysis of the proposed plant, compared with two other plants, are reported. The exergy analysis was performed by considering the embodied energy of the components of each plant and the exergy loss during the functioning of the plants.

Kinematic description of the rupture from strong motion data: strategies for a robust inversion

We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

Statistical analysis and simulation techniques in wall-bounded turbulence

The present work is devoted to the assessment of the energy fluxes physics in the space of scales and physical space of wall-turbulent flows. The generalized Kolmogorov equation will be applied to DNS data of a turbulent channel flow in order to describe the energy fluxes paths from production to dissipation in the augmented space of wall-turbulent flows. This multidimensional description will be shown to be crucial to understand the formation and sustainment of the turbulent fluctuations fed by the energy fluxes coming from the near-wall production region. An unexpected behavior of the energy fluxes comes out from this analysis consisting of spiral-like paths in the combined physical/scale space where the controversial reverse energy cascade plays a central role. The observed behavior conflicts with the classical notion of the Richardson/Kolmogorov energy cascade and may have strong repercussions on both theoretical and modeling approaches to wall-turbulence. To this aim a new relation stating the leading physical processes governing the energy transfer in wall-turbulence is suggested and shown able to capture most of the rich dynamics of the shear dominated region of the flow. Two dynamical processes are identified as driving mechanisms for the fluxes, one in the near wall region and a second one further away from the wall. The former, stronger one is related to the dynamics involved in the near-wall turbulence regeneration cycle. The second suggests an outer self-sustaining mechanism which is asymptotically expected to take place in the log-layer and could explain the debated mixed inner/outer scaling of the near-wall statistics. The same approach is applied for the first time to a filtered velocity field. A generalized Kolmogorov equation specialized for filtered velocity field is derived and discussed. The results will show what effects the subgrid scales have on the resolved motion in both physical and scale space, singling out the prominent role of the filter length compared to the cross-over scale between production dominated scales and inertial range, lc, and the reverse energy cascade region lb. The systematic characterization of the resolved and subgrid physics as function of the filter scale and of the wall-distance will be shown instrumental for a correct use of LES models in the simulation of wall turbulent flows. Taking inspiration from the new relation for the energy transfer in wall turbulence, a new class of LES models will be also proposed. Finally, the generalized Kolmogorov equation specialized for filtered velocity fields will be shown to be an helpful statistical tool for the assessment of LES models and for the development of new ones. As example, some classical purely dissipative eddy viscosity models are analyzed via an a priori procedure.

Comparing Different Approaches for Clustering Categorical Data

There are different ways to do cluster analysis of categorical data in the literature and the choice among them is strongly related to the aim of the researcher, if we do not take into account time and economical constraints. Main approaches for clustering are usually distinguished into model-based and distance-based methods: the former assume that objects belonging to the same class are similar in the sense that their observed values come from the same probability distribution, whose parameters are unknown and need to be estimated; the latter evaluate distances among objects by a defined dissimilarity measure and, basing on it, allocate units to the closest group. In clustering, one may be interested in the classification of similar objects into groups, and one may be interested in finding observations that come from the same true homogeneous distribution. But do both of these aims lead to the same clustering? And how good are clustering methods designed to fulfil one of these aims in terms of the other? In order to answer, two approaches, namely a latent class model (mixture of multinomial distributions) and a partition around medoids one, are evaluated and compared by Adjusted Rand Index, Average Silhouette Width and Pearson-Gamma indexes in a fairly wide simulation study. Simulation outcomes are plotted in bi-dimensional graphs via Multidimensional Scaling; size of points is proportional to the number of points that overlap and different colours are used according to the cluster membership.

Experimental Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Quench in Superconducting HTS Tapes and Coils

The quench characteristics of second generation (2 G) YBCO Coated Conductor (CC) tapes are of fundamental importance for the design and safe operation of superconducting cables and magnets based on this material. Their ability to transport high current densities at high temperature, up to 77 K, and at very high fields, over 20 T, together with the increasing knowledge in their manufacturing, which is reducing their cost, are pushing the use of this innovative material in numerous system applications, from high field magnets for research to motors and generators as well as for cables. The aim of this Ph. D. thesis is the experimental analysis and numerical simulations of quench in superconducting HTS tapes and coils. A measurements facility for the characterization of superconducting tapes and coils was designed, assembled and tested. The facility consist of a cryostat, a cryocooler, a vacuum system, resistive and superconducting current leads and signal feedthrough. Moreover, the data acquisition system and the software for critical current and quench measurements were developed. A 2D model was developed using the finite element code COMSOL Multiphysics R . The problem of modeling the high aspect ratio of the tape is tackled by multiplying the tape thickness by a constant factor, compensating the heat and electrical balance equations by introducing a material anisotropy. The model was then validated both with the results of a 1D quench model based on a non-linear electric circuit coupled to a thermal model of the tape, to literature measurements and to critical current and quench measurements made in the cryogenic facility. Finally the model was extended to the study of coils and windings with the definition of the tape and stack homogenized properties. The procedure allows the definition of a multi-scale hierarchical model, able to simulate the windings with different degrees of detail.

Multidimensional item response theory models with general and specific latent traits for ordinal data

The aim of the thesis is to propose a Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo of multidimensional item response theory models for graded responses with complex structures and correlated traits. In particular, this work focuses on the multiunidimensional and the additive underlying latent structures, considering that the first one is widely used and represents a classical approach in multidimensional item response analysis, while the second one is able to reflect the complexity of real interactions between items and respondents. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery for the proposed models under different conditions (sample size, test and subtest length, number of response categories, and correlation structure). The results show that the parameter recovery is particularly sensitive to the sample size, due to the model complexity and the high number of parameters to be estimated. For a sufficiently large sample size the parameters of the multiunidimensional and additive graded response models are well reproduced. The results are also affected by the trade-off between the number of items constituting the test and the number of item categories. An application of the proposed models on response data collected to investigate Romagna and San Marino residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the tourism industry is also presented.